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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Recent microwave data show that Carlos remains a tiny but well-
organized hurricane.  A well-defined eye was noted in the microwave
data, but no eye is apparent in early-morning visible satellite
images.  The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on satellite
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane
should provide a better estimate of the maximum winds in a few
hours.  The intensity forecast remains a challenge, and with Carlos
being such a small cyclone, sudden changes in intensity--up or
down--are a distinct possibility.  The SHIPS diagnostics don't show
environmental parameters being too hostile, and both the SHIPS and
LGEM keep Carlos in the 60-65 kt range for the next three days.  The
global models, on the other hand, weaken the cyclone quickly, with
the ECMWF showing dissipation by the end of that same time frame.
The official forecast continues to hold on to the assumption that
dry air and large-scale subsidence will become an issue in a few
days, and Carlos is forecast to weaken gradually to a remnant low by
day 4.  As implied above, this intensity forecast is of low
confidence.

The initial motion is 290/4 kt.  A gradual turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days,
which should keep Carlos just offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico.  The updated NHC track forecast has again been shifted a
bit westward, following the trend in the overall guidance envelope
and the TVCN multi-model consensus.  Since the ECMWF dissipates the
cyclone in about three days, the official forecast favors the GFS
solution after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 19.5N 106.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 20.1N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 21.2N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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