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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows that the cloud pattern of
Carlos has diminished in size during the past 12 hours.
A subsequent 0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass also indicated a decrease in
the overall extent of the tropical-storm-force winds.  The
subjective or objective T-numbers for this advisory remain unchanged
as well as the initial intensity of 60 kt, although this could be
generous.  The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain,
especially since the GFS continues to show Carlos dissipating over
water and offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico in less than 72 hours.
 On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical guidance continue to
indicate gradual strengthening through 3 days before leveling off as
a category 1 hurricane.  The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise
of both solutions, showing slight restrengthening to a hurricane in
24 hours.  Afterwards, gradual weakening into a depression is
expected in 72 hours due to land interaction and an unfavorable
thermodynamic environment.  Beyond the 72 hour period, the forecast
calls for further weakening into a remnant low in 96 hours and
dissipation at day 5.

It appears as though Carlos is finally feeling the affects of the
building mid-tropospheric ridge over central Mexico, and is now
moving west-northwestward or 295/5 kt. The cyclone should continue
on this track through the 36 hour period.  Afterwards, the dynamical
models show a weakness developing in the ridge to the north of
Carlos which should turn the system more northwestward and toward
the coast of Mexico.  The official forecast reflects this expected
change in the steering pattern.  The NHC forecast is again shifted
to the left of the previous advisory and is weighed heavily on a
blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Florida State Superensemble.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Carlos later today and should provide a good estimate of the
intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 16.7N 101.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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