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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

The satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the
past few hours. The convection surrounding the intermittent eye
feature has been fluctuating in intensity and is located mostly to
the east of the center. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are lower
that earlier, but still suggest an initial intensity of 60 kt. The
intensity forecast is uncertain. Most of the global guidance,
especially the GFS, basically dissipate the cyclone in the short
term, and none of the other models suggest any significant
strengthening. Given that Carlos will be moving into a low shear
environment and over warm waters for the next day or so, the NHC
forecast calls for a very slight strengthening, if at all. Beyond 3
days, the interaction of the circulation with the high terrain of
Mexico should result in weakening. The weakening could occur much
faster, if an earlier turn to the north-northwest toward land
materializes, as indicated by the GFS.

The steering currents remain weak and Carlos is moving toward the
northwest or 315 degrees at 5 kt. A weakness north of the cyclone
should encourage a gradual north-northwesterly turn, and this is the
solution of the ECMWF and the GFS. The NHC forecast is a little bit
to the left of these two models and the previous official forecast,
and is very close to the multi-model consensus. It is difficult to
forecast if the cyclone will even exist beyond 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 16.7N 101.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 17.1N 102.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 17.4N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 18.0N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 18.7N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 20.5N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z 22.0N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z 24.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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