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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

Although the satellite and radar appearance of Carlos has improved
slightly during the past few hours, including an intermittent
cloud-filled eye feature, cloud tops have warmed by more than 10
degrees Celsius in the convection surrounding the ragged eye feature
during this time.  Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, but the intensity is being held
slightly lower at 60 kt due to the warming cloud tops.

The initial motion estimate is now 310/05 kt. There is no change to
the previous forecast track or reasoning.  The mid-level ridge to
the north of Carlos is expected to strengthen and shift slowly
eastward during the next 48-72 hours, which should act to keep the
small cyclone moving in a general west-northwestward direction, just
offshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours. By
72 hours, Carlos is expected to turn northwestward to north-
northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge axis,
possibly moving inland from near Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.
Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of the Sierra Madre del
Sur mountains would keep the main circulation of slow-moving Carlos
from penetrating too far inland on days 4 and 5 due to the lack of
any strong steering flow.  The global and regional models remain in
decent agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track
lies a tad to the left of the previous advisory track, following a
blend of the consensus model TVCN and the FSSE model.

Now that Carlos has begun to move away from the region of cold
upwelling and into an environment of light vertical shear, some
restrengthening is expected and the cyclone is forecast to regain
hurricane status by late tonight or Monday morning.  Further slow
strengthening is possible until landfall occurs, assuming that
Carlos remains far enough offshore of Mexico.  The intensity
forecast in the latter part of the forecast period continues to
remain uncertain since it depends heavily on how much interaction
Carlos has with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and beyond.  The NHC
intensity forecast is above all of the available guidance and is
very similar to the previous intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 16.4N 100.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.8N 101.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.3N 102.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 17.6N 103.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 18.3N 104.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 20.2N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/1800Z 22.4N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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