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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

The satellite presentation of Carlos has deteriorated overnight,
with a decrease of inner-core deep convection and less well-defined
convective banding features.  An eye is no longer present on
satellite images, and only about half of an eyewall was seen in the
Acapulco radar data.  Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and using a
blend of final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB the current
intensity is set at 70 kt.  Given that the hurricane has been over
the same general area for over a day, it is likely that the cyclone
is being influenced by upwelled and cooled ocean waters.  This has
probably contributed to the weakening, as was also seen with
slow-moving Hurricane Blanca over a week ago.  The
north-northeasterly shear that had been affecting the system has
lessened, and the shear should remain fairly weak for the next few
days.  Assuming that Carlos will be moving away from its cool wake
soon, restrengthening should begin later today.  The official
intensity forecast is below the previous one, but above the
available guidance.  The intensity forecast in the latter part of
the forecast period is highly uncertain since it depends on the
extent to which the circulation will interact with the Mexican
landmass in 1 to 3 days.

The initial motion continues to be quite slow, or 340/3 kt.  A
mid-level ridge to the north of Carlos is expected to build a
little over the next couple of days.  This should cause a turn
toward the northwest and west-northwest with some increase in
forward speed in 1 to 2 days.  Beyond that time the ridge weakens,
so in 3 to 5 days the tropical cyclone should turn toward the
north-northwest.  As noted earlier, while the dynamical models
generally agree on the overall pattern, there is disagreement on
where and when Carlos will make landfall in southwestern Mexico.
The latest ECMWF solution shows landfall within 3 days whereas the
GFS shows landfall much sooner, within 1 to 2 days.  Some of the
other guidance, such as the UKMET model, does not show landfall at
all.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and
is close to the ECMWF solution.  Based on the new forecast track,
the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward
to Punta San Telmo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 15.8N 100.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 16.3N 101.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.9N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 20.0N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 21.5N 105.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  19/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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