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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Carlos has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery at the
moment.  While an eye occasionally appears, the surrounding
convection is asymmetric with little convection to the northwest of
the eye.  This asymmetry is also seen in data from the Mexican
radar at Acapulco, which shows strong bands to the east and weak
bands to the west of the center.  Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB remain 77 kt, so the initial intensity remains 75
kt.

The initial motion is 345/2.  Water vapor imagery suggests that the
forecast mid to upper-level ridge is now developing over central
Mexico.  This should cause Carlos to turn northwestward or
west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours.  After a couple
of days, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as
a mid to upper-level trough drops southward across northwestern
Mexico.  This should result in Carlos turning more northward on the
east side of the trough.  While the dynamical models generally
agree on the overall pattern, there is significant disagreement on
whether Carlos will make landfall in Mexico.  The GFS and ECMWF
models call for the center to turn northward quickly enough to make
landfall in the Manzanillo-Cabo Corrientes area.  On the other hand,
the Canadian, UKMET, and NAVGEM models keep the cyclone offshore.
The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track,
generally follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions, showing a landfall near
Cabo Corrientes in about 72 hours and a second landfall by 120 hours
in northwestern Mexico.

Vertical shear is diminishing over Carlos, and the system is
expected to remain over warm water until landfall.  This should
allow continued strengthening until landfall.  However, the
intensity guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and Carlos'
struggles to maintain an eyewall suggest some negative factor at
work such as dry air entrainment.  The new intensity forecast is
slightly weaker than the previous forecast in calling for a peak
intensity of 90 kt in about 36 hours.  Landfall in western Mexico
should cause considerable weakening and disruption of the
circulation, and thus the intensity forecast show significant
weakening after 48 hours.  The intensity forecast is of low
confidence due to the uncertainly in the amount of land interaction
and why Carlos is currently struggling to intensify.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 15.5N 100.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 15.9N 100.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 16.9N 102.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 19.5N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0000Z 21.5N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  19/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

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