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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015


Satellite images show that Carlos is becoming stronger.  The eye is
becoming better defined, with a more symmetric appearance on the
latest infrared pictures.  Radar data also shows a more complete
eyewall, although it is still open on the north side at times.
Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB support an intensity of 75 kt for the
initial wind speed.

Over the past 24 hours, Carlos has drifted northeastward toward a
weakness in the mid-level ridge over Mexico related to a trough over
the Gulf of Mexico.  All models continue to insist that the ridge
will strengthen soon, forcing Carlos more toward the west-northwest
or northwest over the next couple of days.  The ridge is expected
to weaken again due to a trough over northwestern Mexico, which
should cause Carlos to turn more to northwest by late Monday.
However, since any significant westward motion has yet to
materialize, the guidance continues to show a greater threat to
Mexico, with many models now having a landfall within a few days
time. Thus, the NHC forecast is moved to the right in agreement with
the model consensus.  Although the center is still offshore of
Mexico through 36 hours, the hurricane-force wind radii are too
close for comfort, and therefore the government of Mexico has issued
a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast.

Microwave data show that the low- and mid-level circulations of
Carlos remain a little displaced from one another due to
northeasterly shear.  However, this shear is forecast to get rather
light over the next 24 hours while the hurricane moves over waters
near 30C.  It appears that the environment overall is becoming more
supportive of significant strengthening than earlier anticipated,
assuming that Carlos moves as forecast and does not suffer from its
own cold wake.  This favorable environment is also reflected in the
SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 30 percent chance of a
30 kt increase over the next 24 hours.  Thus, the NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one, above most of the guidance, and is
closest to the LGEM model.  The intensity forecast at 72 hours and
beyond is quite uncertain since it depends on exactly how much land
interaction occurs with Carlos.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 15.2N 100.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.6N 100.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.1N 101.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.7N 102.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 17.3N 103.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 19.4N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  17/1800Z 21.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  18/1800Z 23.0N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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