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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

The overall structure of the cloud pattern has changed very little
during the past several hours. One can still observe an intermittent
ring of convection associated with the center of the cyclone on the
Acapulco radar. However, Dvorak T-numbers and data from a recent
ASCAT pass suggest that the winds are now up to 55 kt. The moderate
northeasterly shear which is affecting the storm should begin to
decrease in about 24 hours, allowing some strengthening. Although
Carlos is forecast to be over relatively warm waters in 72 hours,
but the shear will likely increase again. Consequently, most of the
guidance weaken the cyclone after that time, and this is reflected
in the NHC forecast.

Carlos has been meandering for the past 24 hours or so, but it
appears that it now moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at
2 kt.  Most of the global guidance show a ridge building over
Mexico, and this pattern should steer Carlos slowly toward the
northwest or west-northwest nearly parallel to the coast of
Mexico during the next 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the
ridge over the Baja California peninsula should allow Carlos to
move on a more north-northwesterly track. The NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the guidance
envelope. It is, however, a little bit to the left of the GFS/ECMWF
consensus beyond 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 14.8N 100.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 15.1N 100.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 17.8N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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