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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Carlos has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The deep convection in satellite imagery is asymmetric, with the
coldest cloud tops currently east of the center.  In addition,
data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco shows that the eyewall is
having trouble becoming a closed ring around the 15-20 n mi wide
eye. These conditions are likely due to continued moderate
northeasterly vertical wind shear and perhaps some dry air
entrainment.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain
55 kt and 45 kt respectively, so the initial intensity remains 50
kt.

The center of Carlos has made an eastward turn during the past
several hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 045/2.
 Water vapor imagery shows a large mid to upper-level trough over
the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico, and this may be the cause of
the current motion.  The large-scale models forecast a ridge to
build over Mexico over the weekend, which should then cause Carlos
to move west-northwestward nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Early next week, a mid to upper-level trough over the southwestern
United States is forecast to move into northwestern Mexico, which
could cause Carlos to turn northwestward toward the Gulf of
California or the Baja California Peninsula by Tuesday.  The new
forecast track is similar to but adjusted somewhat north of the
previous one, and it brings the center of Carlos a little closer
to the coast of mainland Mexico.  It should be noted that any motion
to the right of the forecast track could bring the center onshore in
mainland Mexico as forecast by the latest GFS run.

The large-scale models suggest the current shear should abate after
12-24 hours, which in theory should allow Carlos to strengthen.
However, most of the intensity guidance forecasts only slow
strengthening during the next 72 hours, which may be due to a
combination of drier air aloft and possible land interaction.  After
72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to
cause Carlos to weaken.  The new intensity forecast is unchanged
from the previous one, and it remains at the upper end of the
intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 14.8N 100.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 15.0N 100.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 15.4N 100.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 15.8N 101.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.3N 102.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 22.0N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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