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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

Satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated
with the low pressure system located southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has become sufficiently well organized to designate the
formation of a tropical depression.  Therefore, advisories are
being initiated at this time.  The cyclone should remain in an
environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters for the next
several days, so steady strengthening seems to be a good bet.  The
official wind speed forecast is generally above the intensity model
consensus.  There is significant uncertainty in the longer range
intensity forecast, depending on how much the system interacts with
land.

Center fixes have had a fair amount of scatter, and my best
estimate of the initial motion is 315/8 kt.  During the next 72
hours, the cyclone is likely to respond to a mid-level weakness over
the Gulf of Mexico by turning northward and north-northeastward.
Later in the forecast period, a mid-level ridge to the northwest is
expected to cause the system to turn toward the west-northwest and
move parallel the coast.  The GFS model takes the system close to
the coast in 72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFDL model tracks keep the
cyclone offshore and are much farther to the west than the GFS
solution.  As a compromise, the official track forecast is close
to the model consensus TVCN albeit not as far west as TVCN by 120
hours.  Given the large divergence of the model tracks, this is a
low confidence forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 12.4N  98.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 13.0N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 13.4N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 14.0N  99.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 14.5N  99.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 15.5N  99.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 16.5N 100.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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