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TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
900 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

Vertical shear and cold water are taking their toll on Blanca,
with recent microwave data indicating that the low-level center is
separating from the mid-level rotation noted in geostationary
satellite images.  Maximum winds are now estimated to be 55 kt
based on a blend of Dvorak estimates of T3.5/4.5 from TAFB and
T3.0/4.0 from SAB.  Continued shear, even colder water, and the
terrain of the Baja California peninsula should lead to further
weakening, and Blanca is forecast to become a tropical depression
within 24 hours and dissipate by 48 hours.  The NHC intensity
forecast is very close to the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is 345/9 kt.  Blanca is expected to continue
moving north-northwestward between a mid-level high centered over
northern Mexico and a deep-layer low located southwest of
California.  As has been the case for days, there are still
some speed differences among the models, with the GFS being one of
the faster models.  The updated NHC track forecast is very close to
the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus (TVCE), which are
essentially identical through 24 hours.

Moisture associated with Blanca is expected to affect portions of
the southwestern United States in a couple of days.  For more
information, please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 22.3N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 24.3N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 26.7N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 29.1N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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