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HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

Blanca has rapidly intensified since yesterday and the initial
intensity has been set at 115 kt. This is an increase in
the winds of 60 kt since yesterday at 1200 UTC. The initial
intensity is based on objective and subjective T-numbers which have
reached T6.0 on the Dvorak scale. The hurricane has developed a
distinct pinhole eye in both IR and visible images surrounded by
very deep convection.  There is an opportunity for Blanca to
intensify further since the hurricane is located within an ideal
environment of low shear and high ocean heat content as indicated by
statistical-dynamical models. In addition, the Rapid Intensification
Index remains extremely high, and this has been the case during the
past 24 to 36 hours. Beyond 48 hours, the hurricane will encounter
lower SSTs and a gradual weakening should begin.

Blanca is currently trapped within weak steering currents and the
cyclone has barely moved since yesterday and little motion is
anticipated today. During the next 24 hours, the hurricane should
begin a northwestward track with some increase in forward speed as a
high pressure system amplifies over the southwestern Unites States
and Mexico, and a mid-level trough approaches from the northwest.
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows
very closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models.
Since Blanca is a potential threat to Baja California in a few
days, a reconnaissance aircraft will likely investigate the
cyclone on Friday.

Blanca is the earliest second major hurricane to form in the
eastern North Pacific since reliable records began in 1971.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 12.4N 104.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 12.5N 104.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 13.1N 105.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 14.2N 105.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 15.7N 107.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 18.8N 109.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 21.5N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 24.3N 111.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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