ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 Visible satellite images this afternoon indicate that deep convection has developed over the center of the well-defined low pressure system to the south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Therefore the system qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated at this time. The initial motion estimate is 300/05. The depression is located in a region of weak steering but with enough ridging in the short term for the cyclone to drift generally west-northwestward to northwestward through Monday. In 36-48 hours, a mid-level ridge located west of the cyclone could impart an unusual southward motion for a day or so. After that time, global models show stronger ridging developing over northern Mexico and the south-central United States, which should result in a faster west-northwestward or northwestward motion. The official NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE) throughout the forecast period. Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Andres should preclude significant intensification during the next day or two. After that time, the shear is expected to become northeasterly and decrease substantially, while the cyclone moves slowly in a moist environment and over very warm waters of around 30 deg C. These factors should lead to a faster rate intensification, perhaps greater than what is currently forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the SHIPS and HWRF models, which show the most strengthening of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2230Z 12.4N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.1N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 13.8N 104.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 13.3N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 12.3N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 12.7N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 15.0N 107.4W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch NNNN
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