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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015

Andres continues to generate a small area of convection to the
northeast of the center despite being over sea surface temperatures
near 24C.  Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and
the initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on continuity from the
previous advisory and a 45-kt satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB.  Cold water and increasing vertical wind shear should cause
Andres to steadily weaken through the forecast period.  The cyclone
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours,
degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours, and dissipate
completely after 96 hours.

Andres has turned northward over the past several hours with the
initial motion of 010/3.  The cyclone is likely to be situated
within a col region with little steering flow during the next 48
hours or so with only a slow motion expected.  After that time, a
somewhat faster motion toward the southeast or east-southeast should
occur as the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east
becomes the main steering influence.  The new forecast track has
been nudged a little south of the previous track after 24 hours and
lies near the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 20.2N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.3N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.1N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 19.8N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 18.5N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 17.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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