Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm ANDRES


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015

Despite the limited and diminishing deep convection associated with
Andres, a 1304Z RapidScat scatterometer pass indicated at least 50
kt in the western - presumably the weaker - semicircle. Thus it
appears that Andres was more intense earlier today than originally
analyzed.  Current subjective Dvorak and the ADT intensity estimates
for Andres have dropped to 35-45 kt.  Given the likely low bias
indicated in the earlier Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is
kept at 50 kt.

Andres should continue to be convectively challenged because it
is anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable
air, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear.  Steady
weakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by
Friday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days.  The
official intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable
intensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous
advisory.

Identifying the center of Andres this afternoon is quite
straightforward as the center is exposed southwest of the remaining
deep convection.  The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest
at 5 kt, primarily due to steering induced by a deep-layered ridge
to its northeast. However, the cyclone will shortly be situated
within a col region with little steering flow and Andres should
meander on Thursday and Friday.  In about three days, the remnant
low of Andres should move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the
by large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east.  The official
track forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track guidance
- TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly clustered.  This
new track prediction lies just slightly south of that from the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 19.9N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 20.1N 125.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 20.0N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 19.9N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 19.6N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 17.9N 121.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN