ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 The deep convection associated with Andres continues to shrink in size and is limited to the northeastern semicircle. Dvorak estimates correspondingly have fallen with a blend of the ADT, SAB, and TAFB numbers indicating an intensity of about 50 kt. Andres should continue to be convectively challenged because it is anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable air, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear. Steady weakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by Friday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable intensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous advisory. Andres is moving toward the northwest at 7 kt, primarily due to steering induced by a deep-layered ridge to its northeast. However, the cyclone will be situated Thursday and Friday within a col region with little steering flow and Andres should meander. In about three days, the remnant low of Andres should move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the by large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east. The official track forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track guidance - TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly clustered. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.6N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.0N 125.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.1N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 18.4N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea NNNN
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