ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
800 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015
The deep convection associated with Andres continues to shrink in
size and is limited to the northeastern semicircle. Dvorak
estimates correspondingly have fallen with a blend of the ADT,
SAB, and TAFB numbers indicating an intensity of about 50 kt.
Andres should continue to be convectively challenged because it
is anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable
air, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear. Steady
weakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by
Friday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days. The
official intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable
intensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous
advisory.
Andres is moving toward the northwest at 7 kt, primarily due to
steering induced by a deep-layered ridge to its northeast.
However, the cyclone will be situated Thursday and Friday within a
col region with little steering flow and Andres should
meander. In about three days, the remnant low of Andres should
move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the by large
circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east. The official track
forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track
guidance - TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly
clustered.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 19.6N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 20.0N 125.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.1N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 18.4N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Landsea
NNNN