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HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Andres continues to deteriorate this morning with the coldest cloud
tops limited to the eastern portion of the cloud pattern.  The
initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of Dvorak
Final-T and Current Intensity numbers of T4.0/5.0. Andres is
traversing cooler sea surface temperatures of 25 degrees Celsius
while the drier, stable, marine layer intruding from the northwest
continues to adversely affect the inner-core convection.  The NHC
intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus IVCN.
Andres is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours,
however some of the deterministic and ensemble models indicate an
even faster rate of weakening.

The initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt.  The subtropical ridge to
the north of Andres should gradually weaken over the next couple of
days, causing Andres to turn toward the northwest and north.
Through the latter portions of the period, Andres is forecast to
turn slowly east-northeastward and drift within the weak low to
mid-level steering current produced by the aforementioned deep-layer
trough.  There are no significant changes to the previous advisory
and the NHC forecast is based on a blend of the TVCE model consensus
and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) guidance.

The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT-B
overpass which showed a decreased extent of tropical-storm-force
winds over the southeast and southwest quadrants than earlier
estimated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.8N 122.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.6N 123.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.5N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.1N 124.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 19.9N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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