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HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015

Satellite imagery shows that the coverage and intensity of central
deep convection are gradually decreasing, especially over the
northwest quadrant of the cyclone.  In addition, the eye has become
much less apparent. The initial wind speed is set at 100 kt, which
is a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers.  Andres will
soon be crossing the 26 deg C SST isotherm while continuing to
interact with a drier and more stable air mass.  These environmental
factors should cause continued weakening, and the cyclone is likely
to drop below hurricane strength within 36 hours or less.  The NHC
wind forecast closely follows the intensity model consensus.  Andres
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 96 hours, but some
of the guidance indicates that this event will occur sooner than
that.

After jogging to the left earlier today, Andres has now jogged to
the right.  Smoothing out the jogs yields an initial motion of
300/7 kt.  The mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone
is forecast to gradually break down over the next couple of days,
and this should induce Andres to turn toward the northwest and
north.  Afterwards, a mid-level trough digs over the cyclone, but
Andres should have become a shallower system and be steered slowly
eastward by the weaker lower-level flow.  The official forecast is
very close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble
track through 48 hours and close to the multi-model consensus
after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 16.6N 121.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 17.3N 122.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 18.4N 124.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 19.3N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 20.4N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 20.4N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z 20.3N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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