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HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015

This afternoon's satellite presentation continues to show
deterioration of the cloud pattern with significant warming of the
cloud tops, particularly over the western portion.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 110 kt based on a blend of Dvorak
final-T and current intensity numbers of 5.5/6.5.

The intensity consensus model IVCN indicates Andres weakening to a
tropical storm in 36 hours and further diminishing to a remnant low
in 96 hours, and the official intensity forecast follows suit.  It's
also worth mentioning that a few of the statistical-dynamical
intensity models show the cyclone dissipating in 4 days, which is
certainly possible.

Andres has been moving a little to the left of its earlier track
this morning, with an initial motion of 285/7 kt.  A weakness in the
mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from northern Mexico is
forecast to develop near 125W in 48 hours, prompting Andres to turn
slowly toward the northwest.  After that time, the rapidly weakening
cyclone is expected to drift to the north and northeast within a
weak low to mid-level steering current until dissipation.  The
official forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory
and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus, GFEX.

The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent
ISS-RapidScat overpass, which showed a larger extent of
tropical-storm-force winds over the southeastern quadrant than
earlier estimated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 15.9N 121.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 16.7N 122.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 17.8N 123.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.7N 125.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 19.5N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 20.3N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 20.5N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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