ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 Enhanced infrared B-D curve imagery indicates that the eye temperature has cooled considerably this morning to about 7 Celsius, which results in a decrease of the subjective satellite intensity estimates to T6.0 (115 kt). Based on a compromise of these estimates and the objective data-T of 6.7 (132kt), the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 120 kt. Earlier IR satellite imagery showed that Andres peaked around 0900 UTC at an estimated 130 kt and it now appears that the expected weakening trend has begun, likely due to the intruding stable atmospheric marine layer from the northwest. Andres should be moving over cooler waters during the next 24 hours, which should result in a more rapid rate of weakening. The aforementioned stable air mass, cooler water, and increasing southwesterly shear by day 3, should cause the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 48 hours, and a remnant low in 96 hours or less. The hurricane has made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving at 285/5kt. Andres is forecast to turn toward the northwest in about 48 hours as the subtropical ridge begins to weaken with the approach of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough from the northwest. By day 3, the approaching trough is expected to result in a gradual turn toward the north and northeast but with a significant reduction is forward speed because of the sheared, shallow structure of the cyclone. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus, GFEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.7N 120.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.5N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.5N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.2N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.3N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 20.8N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 20.8N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:29 UTC