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HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
200 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015
The satellite appearance of Andres has changed little overnight.
The hurricane is exhibiting characteristics of an annular hurricane
with a well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye, a symmetric mass of deep
convection, and a lack of outer banding features. A blend of the
subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support an
initial intensity of 125 kt.
The hurricane is moving westward or 275 degrees at 5 kt. Andres
should turn west-northwestward, then northwestward during the next
couple of days while a mid-level ridge builds over northwestern
Mexico. By day 3, a deepening mid-latitude trough is expected to
approach the longitude of the tropical cyclone. Andres should be
much weaker by then, and will likely not respond as much to the
mid-level southwesterly flow. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows a
slow northward to northeastward motion at days 4 and 5. The
updated track is close to the Florida State Superensemble and is
near the middle of the model envelope.
Given the expected low shear conditions and annular characteristics
of Andres, the hurricane is likely to weaken a little less than
the guidance indicates today. After that, Andres will be moving
into a more stable environment and over cooler waters, which
should result in a faster rate of weakening. By day 3, increasing
southwesterly shear is likely to cause the circulation to decouple,
and Andres is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low
shortly thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 15.5N 119.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.1N 120.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 17.1N 122.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 18.1N 123.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 19.0N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 20.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 21.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
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