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HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Andres appears to be maintaining its strength for now.  The cloud
pattern of the hurricane consists of a central dense overcast with
an eye occasionally evident in infrared satellite images.  There is
some indication of drier air wrapping around the circulation as seen
in total precipitate water imagery.  The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS were generally the same as the previous
cycle, so the initial wind speed estimate remains 90 kt.

Steady weakening is anticipated to begin by tonight when the
hurricane moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more
stable air mass.  Andres is expected to become a remnant low by the
end of the forecast period, when it is forecast to be over sea
surface temperatures cooler than 24 C.  The official intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in line with much
of the guidance.

Andres has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 290/7.  This general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains
on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge.  After that time,
there remains significant spread in the model guidance.  The
GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, UKMET, and HWRF models show Andres stalling
and then turning northeastward toward a mid- to upper-level trough.
Conversely, the ECMWF model shows Andres moving slowly westward
during the 72-120 hour time frame in the low-level flow.  The
official track forecast is a little north of and slower than the
previous one at 72 hours and beyond.  This forecast continues to
lean toward the ECMWF model, especially in the longer range, which
appears to have the most realistic solution of a decaying tropical
cyclone moving over cool water.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 15.5N 118.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 16.4N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 17.0N 121.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 19.9N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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