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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015

An SSMIS microwave image from a few hours ago indicated that Kate is
well organized, with a large eye feature and a curved band that
almost completely surrounds it.  During the past few hours, however,
the cloud tops have been warming, likely due to its passage over
decreasing SSTs. The initial wind speed remains 65 kt, based on
the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The vertical wind shear is increasing over Kate, and it is expected
to be in excess of 40 kt later today.  In addition, a strong
mid-latitude trough is approaching the cyclone.  Based on these
expected conditions, it appears likely that Kate will transition to
an extratropical cyclone tonight or early Thursday.  After the
transition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong
baroclinic forcing.

Kate is racing east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion
estimate is a speedy 065/39 kt.  The hurricane is expected to slow
down later today and move erratically northeastward to east-
northeastward during the next couple of days when it interacts
with, and ultimately absorbs, an extratropical low to its west.  A
faster northeastward motion is predicted by the weekend after the
merger of the weather systems.  The new track forecast lies in the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded based on recent
scatterometer data.  The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast
was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 36.8N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 39.0N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 41.1N  50.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/0000Z 41.8N  47.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/1200Z 42.4N  43.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/1200Z 48.5N  29.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/1200Z 56.1N  16.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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