ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Kate has strengthened a little.  The advisory intensity of 40
kt is based on peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt, and SFMR
observations of 40-42 kt.  Kate is a very small tropical cyclone,
with its associated central dense overcast extending no more than
about 40 n mi from the center.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Kate is moving
northwestward at about 13 kt, steered between a subtropical high
pressure system over the central Atlantic and a trough over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  A northward turn is forecast to occur
tonight when the storm is near the northwestern Bahamas.  After
that time, an acceleration to the northeast is expected when the
cyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official NHC track forecast is
nudged to the right of the previous one at the 36- and 48-h forecast
times, to come into better agreement with the consensus aids.

Kate is likely to strengthen some more during the next day or so
while it remains in a low- to moderate-shear environment and over
warm water.  The official intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one, but is near the low end of the guidance envelope.
All of the models show Kate becoming absorbed by a much larger
extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 24.5N  75.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 26.1N  76.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 28.7N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 31.6N  72.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 34.4N  68.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

NNNN