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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

Geostationary satellite imagery during the late afternoon showed
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
near the southeastern Bahamas had become better defined. During the
past few hours, thunderstorm activity has increased over the eastern
portion of the circulation, and the system has acquired enough
organization to be classified as a tropical depression, the twelfth
of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.  The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, which is based a data T-number of 2.0 from TAFB and
recent ship observations.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression Monday
morning and should provide a better assessment of cyclone's
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 305/12 kt.  The depression is
forecast to move northwestward tonight, then turn north-
northwestward and northward on Monday and Monday night while it
moves around the western portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the west-central Atlantic.  The tropical cyclone should accelerate
northeastward on Tuesday when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.
The track guidance is good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC
forecast is near the middle of the model envelope.

The depression is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and
over warm sea surface temperatures during the next day or two.
This should allow for strengthening and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the
intensity consensus model IVCN.  The small tropical cyclone is
expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure area
and frontal system that will be moving off the southeast United
States coast in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 23.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.0N  74.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 26.2N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 29.1N  75.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 32.2N  71.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z...Absorbed by extratropical low

$$
Forecaster Brown

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