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HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2015
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 7(28)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 5(28)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 5(29)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 24(38) 3(41)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 3(31)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 2(22)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 6( 8) 12(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ANDROS 34 2 7( 9) 9(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 41 48(89) 4(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
GREAT EXUMA 50 4 35(39) 9(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
GREAT EXUMA 64 1 19(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
SAN SALVADOR 34 71 25(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN SALVADOR 50 13 61(74) 14(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
SAN SALVADOR 64 4 44(48) 19(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYAGUANA 50 24 6(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
MAYAGUANA 64 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CAMAGUEY 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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