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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
800 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON
BERMUDA WHILE PASSING JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 65.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 65.9 West.  Joaquin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn
toward to the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just northwest of
Bermuda tonight, and begin to move away from the island on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).  During the past hour, a 10-minute average wind speed of
45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) were reported at the
Bermuda International Airport.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda
through tonight, with possible gusts to near hurricane force.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda this evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days.  Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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