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HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
200 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

...EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 66.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located by satellite and he Bermuda radar near latitude 31.6 North,
longitude 66.6 West.  Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast
near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a slight
decrease in forward is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just west of Bermuda
later this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda tonight.

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased near 105 mph
(165 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).  During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 55 mph
(89 km/h) was reported at the Bermuda International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent aircraft data
is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by later this
afternoon and early evening.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda this
afternoon and early evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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