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HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
200 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...JOAQUIN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 73.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but
excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should have already been completed in the central Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 73.4 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
northwest and north is forecast Thursday night or Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or
over portions of the central Bahamas today, and be near or over
portions of the northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast today. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible Thursday
night and Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft data is
948 mb (27.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
central Bahamas in the next few hours and tropical storm conditions
are expected soon in the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane conditions
are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas Thursday
night or Friday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas
in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels is expected in the northwest Bahamas within the
hurricane warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over
the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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