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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...
...JOAQUIN LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 67.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 67.7 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this morning, with this motion
continuing through Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Joaquin will pass near Bermuda this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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