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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 68.9W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 68.9 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected later tonight, with this motion
continuing through Sunday night.  On the forecast track, the center
of Joaquin will pass near Bermuda late Sunday or Sunday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday
afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda
by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall over Bermuda through Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the east coast of the United States through the
weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda tonight
and continue through Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though
Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United
States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves
will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and
dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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