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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BATTER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 73.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be complete in the central Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 73.7 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the north
and an increase in forward speed on Friday. On the forecast track,
the center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the
central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or over portions of
the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast in the next
day or so, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (27.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
the central Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are
expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.
Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeastern
Bahamas through tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas
in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels is expected in the northwest Bahamas within the
hurricane warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches
over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread
northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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