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HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS
* BERMUDA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  73.1W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..585NE 240SE 180SW 525NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  73.1W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  73.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.7N  71.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.2N  69.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 31.8N  67.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.1N  66.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 42.5N  50.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 47.0N  32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N  73.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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