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HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS,
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE...BUT EXCLUDING
ANDROS ISLAND AND BIMINI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND,
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...BUT
EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND,
RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS,
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE...BUT EXCLUDING
ANDROS ISLAND AND BIMINI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND,
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...BUT
EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  73.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
EYE DIAMETER  45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE  90SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  73.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  72.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N  73.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.9N  74.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.8N  75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 36.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 38.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N  73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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