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HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND,
RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI,
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE...BUT EXCLUDING
ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  72.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE  90SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  72.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N  72.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N  73.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N  74.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.4N  74.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.3N  74.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 34.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 38.5N  74.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N  72.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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