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TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  70.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  70.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  70.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.4N  71.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.3N  72.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N  73.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.1N  73.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 34.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N  70.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BURKE


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