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TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
0300 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  70.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  70.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N  70.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.9N  71.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N  72.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 27.2N  72.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.4N  73.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.6N  74.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 32.4N  74.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 38.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N  70.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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