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HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

Fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate the
core of Joaquin has gradually begun to move away from the
central Bahamas. There were a couple of SFMR winds earlier which
suggested that the winds could be 115 kt in the southeastern
eyewall, but the cloud pattern has deteriorated since these winds
were measured. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 110 kt.
The eye was over San Salvador Island for several hours where the
pressure dropped to near 944 mb. The Director of the Meteorological
Service of the Bahamas reported to NHC that there was considerable
damage on some islands of the central Bahamas.  Joaquin could
fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours, but given
that the shear is expected to increase, the NHC forecast calls
for very gradual weakening. Joaquin is anticipated to lose
tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period.

Joaquin has recurved and is now moving toward the northeast or 040
degrees at 9 kt. Joaquin is embedded within the southwesterly flow
between a deepening trough over the eastern Unites States and a
a weakening subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. As the trough
swings eastward, Joaquin will become fully embedded within the
mid-latitude westerly flow. This flow pattern will steer Joaquin to
the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. The
multi-model consensus has shifted eastward tonight, and consequently
the NHC forecast was also shifted eastward a little. However, the
NHC forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope,
and additional eastward adjustments of the track could be necessary.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 24.7N  74.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 25.7N  72.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 27.9N  70.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 30.4N  68.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 33.0N  67.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 37.0N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 41.5N  54.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 46.5N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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