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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
500 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015

The depression remains poorly organized, with the center still
exposed to the west of the deep convection. A few bursts of
convection have been trying to redevelop closer to the center, but
the 20 to 25 kt of shear is keeping the convection more than a
degree from the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25
kt based on ASCAT data from earlier today. The depression should
continue to slowly spin down due to shear and dry air in the mid and
upper levels. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in 24
to 36 hours, although timing when deep convection will dissipate is
highly uncertain. The low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate
in 4 to 5 days, in best agreement with the latest GFS forecast.

The motion of the center has been slow and erratic today, with an
has initial motion estimate of 005/03 reflecting a jog to the right
during the past few hours. All of the guidance, even the shallow
BAM, is insistent on a turn back toward the northwest in the next 12
to 24 hours, and that is reflected in the NHC track forecast.
Through 24 hours the NHC track is on the right side of the guidance
to account for the initial motion. After that time, a gradual bend
toward the west-northwest is forecast as the shallow system becomes
steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period the NHC track is
close to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and
motion and is near the shallow BAMS and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 16.5N  44.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 17.2N  45.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 18.2N  46.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 19.0N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1800Z 19.7N  49.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z 20.7N  51.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1800Z 22.0N  54.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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