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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

A new burst of deep convection has occurred over the southern
semicircle but, like the previous one, it lacks any banding
features.  The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is a blend
of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Grace could
continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next
day or two.  However, it will be moving through an environment of
increasing vertical shear and dry mid-level air over the next
several days.  This should cause weakening, and the system is likely
to become a remnant low in 36 hours if not sooner.  There is also
the possibility of the cyclone opening up into a wave during the
forecast period, which is what the GFS and ECMWF models have been
depicting in their recent runs.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the model consensus IVCN.

The initial motion continues westward, or 275/16 kt.  No changes
are evident in the steering scenario for the next 3 days.  A low-
to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to provide a brisk
easterly steering current for Grace or its remnants.  The
dynamical track guidance has been in very close agreement for the
past couple of days.  The official forecast is close to the
dynamical model consensus and is basically and update of the
previous one.

The center of Grace should pass very near NOAA data buoy 41041 in a
couple of hours, which should provide useful data about the tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 14.4N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 14.6N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 15.0N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 15.5N  53.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 16.8N  63.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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