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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

After being devoid of convection for about the past 12 hours, a new
burst of thunderstorms has begun near the center of Fred.  Cirrus
clouds motions suggest that shear remains fairly strong near the
center of Fred, although seemingly less than this time yesterday.
The initial intensity will remain 30 kt, in line with the TAFB
satellite estimate.  Shear is expected to diminish in about a day,
which could allow the cyclone to reintensify around that time while
it moves over warm waters. However, any intensification is expected
to be short-lived with marginal water temperatures and increasing
shear likely by Wednesday.  The NHC forecast is close to the
previous one through 48 h, and is reduced a little bit at long range
to reflect the less favorable conditions.

Fred is moving northwestward at about 9 kt into a break in the
subtropical ridge. The depression should turn to the north and then
northeast during the day on Sunday while the cyclone moves on the
northwestern side of the ridge, with that motion expected to
continue for a couple of days.  Model guidance is generally faster
during this time, and the new offical forecast is faster than the
previous one. The cyclone could turn then eastward and southeastward
on days 4 and 5 due to ridging building over the northeastern
Atlantic.  The track forecast is of low confidence at long range
due to considerable uncertainty about the strength of the tropical
cyclone and the evolution of the ridge.  There have not been any big
changes to the model consensus, so the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one at 96 and 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 24.1N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 24.8N  43.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 26.4N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 28.0N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 29.5N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 32.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 32.5N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 31.5N  31.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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