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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Data from an ASCAT this morning confirmed what was estimated with
conventional visible images. Although Fred still has a very well
defined closed circulation, maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt.
In addition, the NASA Global Hawk has been been sending live
photographs of the tight circulation of low clouds associated with
Fred from 60 thousand feet. Fred has been devoid of deep convection
for a few hours, but as it occurred yesterday, new small convective
cells are currently trying to pop. As stated in the previous
forecast, if resilient Fred survives the strong shear during the
next 24 hours or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification
after recurvature. This is indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and
SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance, and the GFS global model.

Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the
steering currents are weaker, and the cyclone appears to be moving
toward the northwest at about 5 kt. A turn to the north around the
ridge should begin tonight or early Sunday. Fred should then
recurve as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly
flow on Monday. The NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope, and
is close to the multi-model consensus with more weight given to the
GFS and the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 23.8N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 24.5N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 25.6N  43.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 27.0N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 28.5N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 31.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 32.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 32.5N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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