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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 65.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Central Bahamas

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should
monitor the progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 65.3 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is anticipated on Friday, and this general motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico
during the next several hours and move near or over the
Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. St. Croix recently reported a wind gust to 62 mph
(100 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the Virgin Islands
and will spread across Puerto Rico during the next several
hours. These conditions should spread westward across portions of
the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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