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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND
GUANTANAMO.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS,
HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  69.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  69.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  68.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N  71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N  74.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N  77.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N  79.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  69.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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