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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF
ISLA SAONA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  67.7W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  67.7W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  66.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N  69.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N  72.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N  78.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.6N  80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.7N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  67.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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