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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA
SAONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  64.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  64.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  63.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.9N  66.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N  69.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N  72.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.9N  78.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 27.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.5N  80.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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