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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  58.9W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  45SE  45SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  58.9W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  58.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.1N  61.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N  64.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N  66.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N  69.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.7N  74.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N  77.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 27.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  58.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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