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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  54.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  54.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  53.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.4N  56.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.0N  60.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N  63.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N  70.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  25NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  54.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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