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Tropical Storm ERIKA (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  51.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  51.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  50.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N  53.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.6N  56.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.4N  59.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N  62.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  51.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:08 UTC